Climate Adaptation

CLIMATE ADAPTATION

I want to punch climate change in the face. A blog about the interactions between the built environment, people, and nature.


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Republicans in Washington State pass historic climate change bill

Surprise of the year so far. It’ll be interesting to see how enviros will react if/when the national GOP moves towards similar legislation. 

Inslee climate change bill passes state Senate

OLYMPIA — The Republican-controlled state Senate on Wednesday passed legislation aimed at developing ways to reduce state greenhouse-gas emissions, and meet targets set by the Legislature in 2008.

Senate Bill 5802 passed by a vote of 37 to 12. The legislation, requested by Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee, creates a work group that’s supposed to come up with recommendations by the end of the year.

A similar bill was introduced in the House, but Democratic leaders are expected to work with the version that passed the Senate.

Inslee and his staff actively lobbied for the bill and the governor testified at committee hearings in the House and Senate. The measure that passed the Senate removed language talking about problems associated with climate change.

“I really want to take the religion out of carbon and I want to take a good hard look at how we can most effectively meet those goals” set in 2008, said Sen. Doug Ericksen, R-Ferndale, speaking in favor of the bill. Ericksen is chairman of the Senate Energy, Environment and Telecommunications Committee.

Via Seattle Times

So I know that flying is terrible for the environment, but I am curious as to what your personal views are. Traveling has made me not only a better world citizen but also shown me how very real climate change is. Also in this global age, more of us have friends and loved ones/partners around the world. I feel guilty visiting people far away/attending conferences/volunteering, but I also love it. How do you feel about air travel and its effects?

A question by infiniteconchshells

Hi infiniteconchshells

Good question. Whenever I get an energy or carbon question, I summarily retort - “I’m not into energy, I’m into adaptation.” And provide a link that explains the difference between mitigation (finding a cure) and adaptation (treating symptoms).

But, I travel a ton. In the past two years alone I’ve been to Iceland, Holland, Denmark, Sweden, Germany, London, Hungary, Vienna, Belgium (by accident!), and at least 10 US states. There were times I regularly flew from Massachusetts to DC for a business lunch and flew back in time for dinner.

So, despite the fact that I don’t do carbon, you’ve forced me to admit I have a huge carbon footprint. <Sighhh>

Well, I further confess I don’t offset my travel. Personally, I live simply. I buy (and sell) used things, give to good charities (like the Turtle Survival Alliance and the Innocence Project), buy from local farmers, and just do the right things the best I can. I use google hangout and skype a lot, as well as attend webinars instead of flying to conferences.

So, with that, I’d point you to two options. The first is to consider trading carbon on the global market. You might be able to trade in California and possibly under RGGI, as well. I am not sure the cost to access these boards from a consumer perspective, though. I think those two US markets require you to be incorporated. You’ll have to research it yourself, and I’m sure you can call them.

To trade on the global market you can use a simple investment/broker account like Morgan Stanley or CarbonTradexchange, etc. Again, research to see if they offer individuals access.

The superior NYTimes writer, Elisabeth Rosenthal, wrote an excellent piece warning people of carbon offset scams. If you get a chance, pay close attention to her article: “Paying More for Emissions Eases Guilt, not Emissions.” She also wrote a piece on airline travel a few weeks ago, aptly titled, “Your Biggest Carbon Sin - Air Travel,” which I found completely unhelpful but maybe you’ll glean something from it.

Second (I’ll admit this is weak), plant trees with friends. It’s fun, and very cool to see them grow over the years. But honestly, it does next to zero to cover your travel. Billions of trees are cut every year to help us wipe our counters, butts, and jamb printers. So, planting a tree to offset carbon is Sisyphean balderfollydash. But it sure is fun to do!

At the end of the day, if you choose to fly over taking a train, you have to come to terms with the fact that you are contributing (mini-micro-minutely, let’s get real here) to climate change.

That’s all I got! 

Michael

SOTU: what to expect on climate change

Good read, but nothing on adaptation:

President Obama is expected to launch a serious second-term push on climate change with his State of the Union address.

With climate legislation dead in Congress, green groups are hopeful that Obama will follow the “we must act” mantra of his inaugural address and put the full weight of his executive powers behind their agenda.

 “The problem is very pressing, and so the sooner we have policy proposals in front of us, the better.”

Obama has already signaled his willingness to use his executive powers forcefully, laying out a series of executive orders on gun control in addition to calling for legislation.

 On climate, the White House took some steps with executive powers in the first term, and that’s expected to be the primary second-term focus.

“If he were to just repeat what he said in the [second] inaugural address, that would be considered a missed opportunity, but I don’t believe he will. I believe he will be more specific about what he is going to do,” said one climate advocate.

Liberals in Congress have urged the president to go big on climate as well.

“From a planetary point of view there is no issue more important than climate change, and the president has to be as bold and specific as he possibly can,” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) told reporters on the eve of Obama’s address.

At the very top of advocates’ wish list is a commitment to setting carbon emissions standards for existing coal-fired power plants. A move in that direction would begin an all-out war with coal-based power companies and some other industry sectors that say there would be huge economic costs from increased regulation. 

Obama, without Congress, can also expand on his first-term actions to boost Defense Department green energy programs and development alternative energy on public lands, among other steps.

No matter what steps Obama takes, environmentalists say the president needs to use the bully pulpit to rally public support. 

Also,

Perceived timings of economic crisis and climate change prevent action

Surprisingly bold call for adapting to climate change by Chiemi Hayashi of the WEF. She calls for heavy investments in climate adaptation now while leaders figure out how to tackle the current economic crisis.

She doesn’t quiet say it, but Hayashi implies that efforts to reduce carbon emissions have failed. And since those efforts have failed, we have to deal with two crises that are sneaking up on us right now: an economic crisis and a disaster management crisis.

Climate change threats are being neglected to tackle short term economic stresses but it would be wise to invest in climate change adaptation now.

The world is facing an unprecedented dual crisis. But with economic and environmental stresses playing out over different timeframes, deep-rooted biases in the way we judge risks may mean we are too preoccupied with firefighting short-term economic problems to tackle longer-term climate threats.

That is one of the key messages to emerge from the Global Risks 2013 report, published by the World Economic Forum. The report is based on an annual survey in which experts share their perceptions of how global risks may unfold over a 10-year time horizon.

Highlighted concerns left no doubt that the continuing fallout from the financial crisis of five years ago is likely to dominate leaders’ attention over the coming decade. Growth prospects remain relatively weak, and intense pressure on public finances is set to continue.

Meanwhile, experts rated the systemically most important environmental risk to be failure to adapt to climate change – in contrast to last year, when rising greenhouse gas emissions topped the results. This reflects a wider shift in recent conversation on climate change, from the question of whether our climate is changing to “by how much” and “how quickly”.

The transition can be seen in a spate of recent reports on climate adaptation efforts. Examples of adaptation initiatives include flood defences for coastal cities, strengthening the capacity of critical infrastructure to survive freak weather events, and researching crop varieties which are more able to withstand swings between extremes of drought and flood.

While the numbers involved vary widely according to different climate change scenarios, it is clear that the costs of investing in adaptation measures and curtailing greenhouse gas emissions are greatly outweighed by the likely future costs of failing to do so. One recent report by Mercer estimates the economic costs of climate change as likely to fall between $2tn and $4tn and (£1.25tn and £2.5tn) by 2030. In addition, we are observing nascent trends of climate change-related litigations, which could compound the cost of climate change significantly.

Logic dictates that it would be wise to bear the costs of investing in climate change adaptation now, rather than shouldering the greater future costs of climate-related disasters. However, humans suffer from several well-established cognitive biases which may hold us back from doing so.

The term “hyperbolic discounting” refers to the tendency to give immediate costs and benefits disproportionately more weight than delayed ones. Researchers have also found that we place too much emphasis on recent personal experience when estimating the future likelihood of a given risk occurring – for instance, taking out flood insurance immediately after a flood, and letting it lapse after a few years without a flood.

The cumulative effect of such cognitive biases is that we tend to find reasons to persuade ourselves that it is not necessary to focus on risks which are perceived to be long term, creeping and relatively uncertain. And while some degree of climate change is now inevitable, there remains great uncertainty about its likely extent and local manifestations.

The latter is especially significant, as climate adaptation is inherently local.

This is a great article. Honest and clear-eyed. I highly recommend my followers to take some time to read it. Via The Guardian

In Austerity Crisis, Greeks Turn to Wood-Burning, Illegal Logging

"A steep increase in heating costs has led many Greeks to switch from heating oil to wood-burning. But the price of using cheaper fuel is growing.

Illegal loggers are slashing through forests already devastated by years of summer wildfires. Air pollution from wood smoke is choking the country’s main cities. And there has been an increase in blazes caused by carelessly attended woodstoves.

Three children died in a northern village last month when a fire gutted the home of their grandparents, who had recently changed from oil-fueled central heating to a wooden stove to save money.

In Athens, the capital, officials have warned of severe health risks from the low-lying smog that smothers the city at night, when fireplaces and woodstoves burn at full blast in poorly insulated homes. Greece’s leading medical association is demanding urgent action to clean the air. But those warnings have largely been ignored for a simple reason: Burning wood provides the same warmth as heating oil, for roughly half the cost.

For the past three years, the country has been wracked by its worst financial crisis since the end of World War II. Living standards have plummeted, pensions have been slashed and a quarter of the workforce is unemployed, following deeply resented cutbacks demanded in return for international bailouts shielding Greece from total ruin.

The heating crisis was triggered by taxation changes, and made desperate by financial woes. For years, fuel for vehicles was taxed more heavily than heating oil. That encouraged crooked traders to sell heating fuel for use in vehicles and pocket the difference.

Hoping to boost faltering revenues and foil tax fraud, the government this year harmonized taxes on vehicle fuel and heating oil, which now costs about 40 percent more than last winter, although lower-income residents of colder areas get a rebate. Critics say the move backfired due to a drastic decline in sales.”

Via Weather

Part of this complicated issue is that Greeks aren’t used to paying market rates for basic services. Nor is the government itself used to the process of collecting taxes (sounds weird, but true). After recent austerity cuts, taxes and public services adjusted to (or attempt to) reflect a more market-oriented structure to help create a less corrupt, tax-dodging culture. The measures, as the above shows, may have been too strong and too fast, causing more damage to the country than taking a slower approach.

Nicholas Stern: 'I got it wrong on climate change – it's far, far worse'

I devoured Lord Stern’s now famous report six years ago (has it been that long!?). At the time Stern’s report was very controversial. It focused primarily on the economic impacts from climate, and had included some incredibly high numbers. It was widely thought to be out-of-touch with reality - that his numbers were wildly overestimated and his analysis of the models was flawed. True, this reception has softened somewhat over the years.

Now Stern says he didn’t go far enough.

Lord Stern, author of the government-commissioned review on climate change that became the reference work for politicians and green campaigners, now says he underestimated the risks, and should have been more “blunt” about the threat posed to the economy by rising temperatures.

In an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Stern, who is now a crossbench peer, said: “Looking back, I underestimated the risks. The planet and the atmosphere seem to be absorbing less carbon than we expected, and emissions are rising pretty strongly. Some of the effects are coming through more quickly than we thought then.”

The Stern review, published in 2006, pointed to a 75% chance that global temperatures would rise by between two and three degrees above the long-term average; he now believes we are “on track for something like four “. Had he known the way the situation would evolve, he says, “I think I would have been a bit more blunt. I would have been much more strong about the risks of a four- or five-degree rise.”

He said some countries, including China, had now started to grasp the seriousness of the risks, but governments should now act forcefully to shift their economies towards less energy-intensive, more environmentally sustainable technologies.

"This is potentially so dangerous that we have to act strongly. Do we want to play Russian roulette with two bullets or one? These risks for many people are existential."

The Guardian

Global warming over the last 16 years, with natural variations (such as volcanic ash and the Ninos) stripped out. Via Revkin

Kyoto climate change treaty sputters to a sorry end

Kyoto Protocol aimed for 5% cut in carbon emissions — instead, we got a 58% increase

The controversial and ineffective Kyoto Protocol’s first stage comes to an end today, leaving the world with 58 per cent more greenhouse gases than in 1990, as opposed to the five per cent reduction its signatories sought.

From the beginning, the treaty that was adopted in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, was problematic. Opponents denied the science of climate change and claimed the treaty was a socialist plot. Environmentalists decried the lack of ambition in Kyoto and warned of dire consequences for future generations.

But the goal of the treaty was simple.

"We hoped that we would be able to reduce greenhouse gases substantially, but that it was a first step," explained Christine Stewart, the Liberal environment minister who negotiated in Kyoto on Canada’s behalf.

The Kyoto Protocol was an initiative that came out of the 1992 Rio Earth Summit. It recognized that climate change was a result of greenhouse gases created by human industrial activity. The idea was that rich nations, which had already benefited from industrialization, would reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in the first part of the treaty and developing nations would join in later.

Although the protocol was adopted in 1997, it didn’t to come into force until 2005. In the intervening eight years, countries set reduction targets for themselves and ratified the agreement.

"At the time we didn’t realize how complicated it would be to get the Kyoto Protocol ratified and for it to enter into force internationally," said Steven Guilbeault, co-founder of Equiterre, a Montreal-based environmental charity.

Problems from the beginning

Right off the bat, there were problems. The U.S., the world’s biggest emitter at the time, signed up but never ratified…

Via CBC

The Scramble for Iraq’s oil wealth has begun. The country is nearly stable, a semi-functioning government is in place, and the oil business is about to explode.

A new oil rush is taking place in Iraq.

The country is emerging as a new oasis of opportunity, while the rest of the world struggles to emerge from the global financial crisis.

And as Al Jazeera’s Jane Arraf reports from Baghdad, it is not just oil that is attracting hungry foreign companies.”

Via Al Jazeera (click here if video is not working)

One of the clearest climate graphics I’ve seen. It describes in simplest terms how much carbon we can afford to dump into the air before doom. Answer: about 13 years-ish at current rate and then systems begin collapsing. The columns show which cities, crops, and species will be impacted and when. Unfortunately, these estimates are fairly low.

Update: Sorry, I was so excited Tumblr was back up I forgot to post the source! The Guardian, covering the COP18. Data is here. Hi-res PDF.

ideatrotter:

Climate Change 101: Fundamentals of Climate Change

The recent climate conference in Doha has sparked much interest with the adoption of the second Kyoto protocol. Larger nations may now be taxed for their environmental actions in order to compensate the smaller nations who maintain a more active role in their local environmental conservative activities. 

A new video on Vimeo (courtesy: Dark Igloo) is going viral and is looking to explain climate change on a more fundamental level.

Really good climate explainer. Long time followers know I’m skeptical about the solutions Bill Nye discusses at the end of this video. Carbon emissions are simply not decreasing, not even a little. In fact, we’re burning much more than thought possible. And we have to stop fooling ourselves in thinking that it’s going to stop. China and India are getting richer and Africa and the Middle East are experiencing populations booms. They want cars, computers, houses, and gadgets, all of which means higher demand for energy. We need to be honest and clear headed about this reality.

In any case, this is a good video and well worth watching.

Streaming right now for 24 hours! 4 million are tuned in. Watch special reports on climate change from around the world via the Climate Reality Project.

The best explainer of climate science I’ve seen in a long while. It explains ice core samples work in clear terms. Then explains how scientists use those samples to help predict changes to the climate in the future. There’s a bit about the science of carbon, but it’s presented in a way that’s easy to understand.

So, why does this matter? Well, it helps us figure out safe places to live, how much food we can grow and where, which animals will be in trouble so we can help, and where diseases might spread due to hotter temperatures. For example, it might not be a good idea to rebuild parts of Far Rockaway after Hurricane Sandy. It’s irresponsible of the government to continue this type of development when people’s homes (and lives) are at risk from bigger storms and aggressive beach erosion.

For more on the impacts, visit The Daily Climate.

Obama goes on MTV(‽) to talk about why he didn’t debate climate change! What the interobang