bikecommuter8 asked: What's your take on peak oil? Do you think it's going to happen by 2020? maybe earlier? What do you think will be the outcome? Will the government finally tell the oil and automotive companies to find alternate forms of energy, or will it be mass chaos and only the rich will be driving? Just curious I've just started reading up on this, & find it interesting.

Hey bikecommuter8!

Thanks for the note. Well, I’m not an energy guy. I’m into infrastructure, enviro-policy, risk and disaster management, and conservation all with heavy doses of climate science.

I get what you’re asking - will technology save us when all the world’s oil is burned? I have posted a little bit on peak oil. But, the bottom line - don’t believe the hype.

The most well known peak oil doomsayers are the folks that run The Post Carbon Institute. It’s a fine group. They’re working towards making cities more sustainable (but, really, who knows which definition they use or metrics they’re depending on?).

Of the 25-ish people running Post Carbon, only one was a geologist (and even this is specious as he appears to have been active only in the 1960s). Most of them are mighty fine enviro-writers. You have to ask yourself why is it they don’t have more oil industry folks on their team..?

For serious reading on peak oil, check out The Oil Drum. They are a fantastic group of geologists, engineers, chemists, and other oil industry folks experienced in actually studying the economics of oil (Jerves?). I love that they analyze and revise their own work - the mark of excellence in researching.

Personally, I think we’ll be fine with respect to oil (not in other respects! But on this question, I’m not too worried).

I do question why so many environmentalists display signs of glee, joy, and other versions of happiness as they discuss peak oil… Creeps me out.

Cheers!

m